Here is a direct provocation. Too many cities on the African continent continue to be organised around the interests of commodity-extracting multinationals and a small economic elite. This is partly why we continue to see a disproportionate focus on port and airport development, Special Economic Zones, new towns, and mega-infrastructure projects often designed to generate resource taxes. This brand of urban development comes at the expense of economic diversification,
mobilisation of domestic resources, and sustained investment in socio-economic development. It ignores the innovation, resourcefulness, and resilience of the African urban majority, and under-values their livelihoods, carved out against the odds, as “informal”. This is holding the continent back.
Contrary to urbanisation periods elsewhere in the world, it is becoming clear that a growing urban population in Africa will not, on its own, guarantee significant socio-economic progress. Sure, the 25–35 million new arrivals into towns and cities across the continent each year are contributing towards a measure of progress: pockets of economic growth, declining infant mortality and malnutrition, and climbing adult literacy. But this progress has been unevenly distributed and can best be described as “marginal” rather than “systemic” or “transformational”. A combination of centralised planning and budgeting, coupled with the inability to attract foreign direct investment for basic infrastructure, and the rising toll of climate change has undermined the “urbanisation dividend” that lifted other parts of the world.
And yet a nagging sense—supported by a growing set of datapoints—suggests the development of African cities could shape the development of African countries and the global economy. Recognising this potential it’s important to ask: what is the objective case for African cities? More practically, in the context of increasingly transactional international trade and development, what do rapidly evolving and growing African cities actually have to offer the rest of the world as it faces a myriad of uncharted challenges? There is no easy answer to this question, but there are four specific features of Africa’s urbanisation that provide cause for pragmatic optimism.
Let’s start with Africa’s population. With a median age of 19, the continent will be home to the only working-age population that will be growing ahead of 2050. Ironically, the macro-economic and financial stability of high-income countries where populations are ageing rapidly (the median age in Europe is 45 and in Japan it is 50!) will depend on the old-fashioned factory and farm work, the carers and nurses, and the consumption habits of Africa’s growing economically active cohort. A global economy that is rapidly automating will still require energetic, economically ambitious people to “pitch up” and “show up” as workers and consumers. A growing proportion of these actors will be found in African cities.
The continent is destined to become the last major frontier of working-age population growth, and failing to invest and harness this potential would be to forego an immense economic opportunity for both Africa and the world. Next, there is the chance to reimagine the role of Africa’s urban infrastructure. Enough has been written about Africa’s desperate lack of key infrastructure; the construction of the energy, transport, and urban infrastructure the continent needs is estimated to require $157 billion per annum. This should be seen as the source of investment growth for the global economy that it is. Unlike in other regions where cities are already built, African cities are in a position to be constructed in full anticipation that climate change events will become more intense and frequent for at least the next three decades. In the process, African cities can reset the relationship between urban expansion and nature in ways that protect the continent’s globally significant natural
carbon sinks.
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Enough has been written about Africa’s desperate lack of key infrastructure; the construction of the energy, transport, and urban infrastructure the continent needs is estimated to require $157 billion per annum. This should be seen as the source of investment growth for the global economy that it is.
Where infrastructure is complemented with energy, African cities hold the key to low-carbon manufacturing. Africa’s urban energy systems will be created in the wake of the global energy revolution that has seen the price of renewable electricity fall below that of hydrocarbon and hydro-powered electricity. In addition to this, a number of African countries hold the strategic minerals on which the roll-out of renewable energy and electric vehicles will depend. The combination of strategic minerals, renewable energy, and growing urban markets for manufactured goods and services provides a fertile context in which to expand low-carbon manufacturing sectors within the continent. It is these sectors that will allow African countries with hydrocarbon resources to process and beneficiate those resources on the continent, rather than continuing their export as raw commodities while importing refined petrochemicals.
Finally, Africa’s cities hold the key to financing Africa’s debt. Many African countries face persistent trade deficits and carry high debt-to-GDP ratios. This undermines the case for investing on the continent, sustaining and amplifying the global imbalance between the countries of the global North and South. The transition of African cities from dependents on commodities to engines of diverse and inclusive economic growth represents a key to reducing the continent’s dismal debt-to-GDP ratios, while also offering a huge contribution towards the desperately needed global rebalance. However, this transition is only possible if domestic resources (including remittances) are mobilised for infrastructure investments that boost productivity quickly while generating further economic activity. International financiers need to understand the African urban opportunity and provide more affordable international investment for basic urban infrastructure and services.
Of course, the path forward isn’t simple. But if the future of Africa is young and urban, then African cities are the future. As such, Africa’s cities will exert a definitive influence on the global economy’s stability. This influence could be massively positive for the world, or exacerbate existing problems. While African leaders have yet to grasp this opportunity—let alone table it to the world as a bargaining chip—Africa’s urbanisation is integrally linked to the future of the entire world, and the inherent opportunities are clear. The question is, why isn’t the continent’s leadership making a stronger argument on this, both to their own people, and to the world?
